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DRAWING 6





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-----------------2004---------------------------------2030

These stats picture some important evolutions.

1-in 2030, 34% of the world population, will be on an income that exceeds $10,000 per capita (16% in 2004)

2-The most important fact is the growing Middle class: High and Upper Middle income groups will represent 61% of the world population in 2030 ( 25% in 2004). For example, China and India's middle class will sharply increase (650 million expected in China by 2030). In turn, this greater middle class will mean a consumption explosion and will boost the world economy.

3-As a result, the percentage of poor people (Lower Middle Income en Low income) will decrease from 75% to 39%and will concentrate in South Asia (Except India) and in Africa. Large segments of the world population will endure a greater poverty than in 2004. For example, the situation in Sub Saharan Africa will be catastrophic: The GNI per capita ( $355 in 2004-Except South Africa ) will drop to $290 in 2030.

4-The inequalities will rise. In 2004 the income of the hyper rich ( North America- More than $30,000 per capita ) is about 60 fold the average low income (500). In 2030, it will represent 140 fold ! ( However, bear in mind that these growing inequalities are also caused by the compounded interests: Suppose two persons A and B with respectively 100 and 1000. Suppose A enjoys a growth rate of 10% and B only 3. The difference (1000-100=900) will increase until year 21 and only begins to decrease after this date. As long as developed countries have a positive growth rate, the inequalities may only increase in the short term).

Causes

According to our methodology, the causes of these contrasted evolutions are connected to the paradigms and the main drivers at work.

In North America, Central america, Oceania, and many countries of North East, South and South East Asia the main paradigm is the liberal society and its global driver (Freedom of consciousness, creativity). In some other Asian countries, the paradigm is not completely established ( China is not yet a democracy). However, the economic components of the global driver (Creativity, entrepreneurial spirit) are working on the fast lane. By the same token, the Far East of Europe (Russia, Ukraine) is also on this trend with bright economic prospects.

On the other hand, since September 2001, the islamic driver is prevalent in countries based on the authoritarian paradigm. As a result, the GNI of the Middle East and North Africa ( Without Israel ) is expected to slowly evolve.The islamic driver also plays a major role in some countries of South Asia ( Pakistan ) and South East Asia ( Indonesia and maybe Malaysia) and finally in the Sub Saharan Africa.

The most fascinating fact is the shift of paradigm occurring in the European Union. Since the 18th, Europe was the cradle of Civilization and its paradigm had been based on the Free society. Presently, the European Union is giving up its values, adopts the cultural relativism and tends toward the islamic values in the long term. As a result, creativity and the growth prospects are rapidly declining. South America, just like the European Union, also endures a shift in paradigm. In the 1990, the region was clearly in the globalization. Thanks to a dreadful depression in the 2000, the South American paradigm is shifting toward a mixture of Communism and Populism. As a result, the future growth will be limited.

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